Next Parlament Speculation

Written

I was wrong that the Finns Party would win the election. Not by much but still I was wrong. I almost want to check did the Finns Party lose some of their jihadists in this election since I would guess there was some segment of NATO opposition, and vaccine looney toons in the voter base. I might be wrong about that since I'm looking at Ano Turtiainen too much but at least that guy is out.

Arithmetic after this election is:

I do not think the last one will happen. The second to last one may have the strength to do something, but I do not think National Coalition wants that. Two parties with too much power over National Coalition. So either first two are the real options, right?

Well, Centre Party seems to have decided[alt] that it does not want to be in government. Although I have to say, people deciding that a party should be on the opposition is not what those who voted for the party want nor those who did not. However, this creates a bit of a dilemma.

Cristian democrats are not enough for a majority coalition with National Coalition and the Finns Party. Adding Harkimo to that also is not enough. So smallest addition is the Swedish People's Party of Finland (RKP). The problem is can the Finns Party and RKP do not really agree on Mandatory Swedish in schools. The next smallest parties Greens and Left Alliance are not ready to work with the Finns Party either. If either would concede, on mandatory Swedish, it would not look good on their party. Even some kind of compromise would probably not satisfy either party's voter base. Just neutrality on the issue would not work as that would make the Finns Party look weak and not hold their promises. But maybe the Finns Party can win RKP with some compromise. RKP was in the government when mandatory Swedish was dropped to optional from baccalaureate exams. [Proposal] [Goverment at the time] Although it was RKP in the last government that tryied to brought them back. It seem to have not worked.

Greens, Left Alliance, or SDP are not keen on working with the Finns Party so that would make National Coalition and SDP the other choice. Well, the Left Alliance is not keen on National Coalition. So Greens perhaps. Their results were not good though. I don't think the Greens have said anything about not going for a government so maybe.

I honestly don't know what will happen. I cannot close out the possibility of a minority government but I do not put big chances on that. I would hope the Finns Party would do their namesake and do something about the mandatory Swedish or at least killing putting Swedish back to mandatory in baccalaureate exams. It would make RKP look weak but that is a good thing.

I'm not going to speculate on the next election winner, unlike last time. The problem is that SDP could get more younger voters or lose them after this election. Too, many moving parts to guess. I would wager again that the Finns Party would win, but I just do not know. Maybe the Finns Party end up being fuck ups or they do not do anything about mandatory Swedish and the issue blows in their faces. I do not know.