My Bet About Finns Party Stands.

Now that Municipal elections are, done I'm keeping my bet about the Finns Party being number one in the next parliamentary elections. I made this bet in article titled I bet that True Finns are number one in next parliamentary elections. But Finns Party got fewer votes than last parliamentary election. [1] Yeah, they also did get fewer votes in the 2012 municipal election than the 2011 parliamentary election. [2]

Party hasn't increased its vote since 2011. My counter to these three points.

• Halla-aho is hugely popular. [3]
• This is the first election cycle Halla-aho has no government package.
• I don't think National Coalition Party's result was good.

For the last point, my reason is that they didn't get huge upwind. They got votes for more strategic places for seats. [1] Looking at the numbers this will be the Coalitions vote count next parliamentary elections. Now vote count was 522077. The last parliamentary election count was 523957. [4] Not really a difference. If the Finns Party gets it base to vote on parliamentary election and SDP keeps this result then Finns Party have huge chance of winning.

There can also be other small effects like the Christian Democratic vote leaving. They are in opposition but are losing votes! They are losing their function may be to Finns Party. Maybe some EU supporters would vote for them or Halla-aho being atheist may scaring some but overall they don't have a policy that is "theirs". [1]

References:

[1] YLE result service on 2021 municipal election [Link]
[2] Wikipedia on Finn Party (has election data)[Link]
[3] HS article: Jussi Halla-aho nousi koko maan ääni haravaksi, Marin tippunut neljänneksi. [Link]
[4] Wikiepdia on National Coalition Party (has election data)[Link]